Blaze Sports Intel
Sports Intelligence Put Simply
Blaze Sports Intel
Sports Intelligence Put Simply
Estimates of each team's likelihood of winning based on current college baseball game state.
Win probability is the estimated chance a team wins given the current score, inning, score, and base-out state. It's expressed as a percentage from 0 to 100 for each team, always summing to 100%.
Current lead/deficit between teams
Inning + outs
Runners on base + out count creates 24 distinct leverage states
Historical home-field advantage factor by venue context
Team quality estimates from season record, RPI, or power ratings
Calibration target: when the model says a team has a 70% win probability, that team should win approximately 70% of the time across a large sample.
Blowouts in early innings — the model can overstate comeback probability when the score differential is extreme but the game is young.
Pitching changes — a dominant reliever entering changes the true WP significantly, but the model doesn't yet account for individual pitcher quality.
Weather delays — suspended games or rain-shortened games break the inning-based framework.
Small-sample sports — college baseball has fewer plate appearances per game than MLB, making leverage tables noisier.
Initial methodology documentation. Model framework established. Calibration pending against college baseball dataset.
Austin Humphrey. (2026, February 17). Blaze Sports Intel Win Probability Model. Blaze Sports Intel. https://blazesportsintel.com/models/win-probability