March 5–17 · 20 Nations · Four Pools · One Title
Power rankings, pool breakdowns, bracket math, and betting intelligence — one place.
BSI probability model · 200K simulations · pre-tournament baseline
| # | Team | Pool | QF% | SF% | Final% | Title% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JapanTIER 1 | Pool C | 94% | 79% | 55% | 22% |
| 2 | Dominican RepublicTIER 1 | Pool D | 88% | 71% | 46% | 18% |
| 3 | USATIER 1 | Pool B | 85% | 65% | 40% | 15% |
| 4 | VenezuelaTIER 2 | Pool D | 79% | 55% | 30% | 10% |
| 5 | Puerto RicoTIER 2 | Pool D | 72% | 44% | 22% | 9% |
| 6 | South KoreaTIER 2 | Pool C | 76% | 48% | 24% | 8% |
| 7 | MexicoTIER 2 | Pool B | 68% | 35% | 15% | 5% |
| 8 | CubaTIER 3 | Pool A | 65% | 30% | 11% | 4% |
| 9 | NetherlandsTIER 3 | Pool A | 60% | 25% | 9% | 3% |
| 10 | CanadaTIER 3 | Pool B | 55% | 20% | 7% | 2% |
| 11 | AustraliaTIER 3 | Pool C | 48% | 14% | 4% | 1.5% |
| 12 | ItalyTIER 3 | Pool A | 45% | 12% | 3% | 1% |
| 13 | ColombiaTIER 4 | Pool B | 38% | 9% | 2% | 0.8% |
| 14 | Chinese TaipeiTIER 4 | Pool A | 35% | 7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 15 | PanamaTIER 4 | Pool A | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0.4% |
| 16 | IsraelTIER 4 | Pool D | 22% | 3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 17 | Czech RepublicTIER 5 | Pool C | 18% | 2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 18 | NicaraguaTIER 5 | Pool D | 12% | 1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 19 | ChinaTIER 5 | Pool C | 8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 20 | Great BritainTIER 5 | Pool B | 5% | 0.2% | 0.05% | 0.1% |
BSI probability model (200K Monte Carlo simulations) · Pre-tournament baseline · March 4, 2026
Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Puerto Rico combine for 37% of championship probability in the BSI model. All three play Pool D Miami. One doesn't make the quarterfinals.
Defending champions, deepest pitching staff, Ohtani available. Japan reaches the final in 55% of BSI simulations. The question is whether they spend ace arms in Tokyo or save them for Miami.
USA gets Pool B Houston — easiest draw of any Tier 1 team. Their 40% Final% vs 15% Championship% reveals the pattern: they reach the final, they don't finish it. Bullpen management is the recurring problem.